Overseas spot gold, foreign exchange margin trading and CFD products are not regulated or legally protected in Chinese mainland. Such transactions involve huge risks including platform runaway, failed fund withdrawal and fraud via false trading signals. All content below is only a collation of global public market information and does not constitute any trading, position holding or buy/sell advice.

1. Core Market Logic for the Trading Day

Today’s global foreign exchange and precious metal markets are dominated by two key factors: escalating US-Iran geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, plus the release of US June CPI inflation data and the Federal Reserve Chair’s congressional hearing scheduled for tonight. The current geopolitical situation breaks the long-standing market rule that gold rises as a safe haven amid conflicts. The complete transmission logic is as follows: the US military imposes blockades on Iranian ports → crude oil prices surge sharply → markets worry that rising energy costs will push US inflation up again → traders price higher odds of Fed rate hikes and delay rate cut expectations → the US Dollar and US Treasury yields rise simultaneously → bearish pressure builds on non-interest-bearing gold, while all non-US currencies depreciate passively. Safe-haven capital that previously boosted gold during geopolitical risks has completely shifted; gold is now purely priced based on interest rates and moves in line with Treasury yields, with risk-averse funds fully flowing into US Dollar assets.

2. Full Update on Middle East Geopolitical Developments (Impacting Markets All Day)

On July 13 local time, the US Naval Maritime Command issued an official statement announcing a full maritime blockade and control over all Iranian coastlines, oil terminals and ports, effective at 20:00 GMT, equivalent to 04:00 Beijing Time on July 15. Under the blockade rules, all vessels flying any national flag bound for Iranian ports must undergo US military boarding inspections and pay passage fees. Neutral cargo ships merely transiting the Strait of Hormuz without destinations in Iran can navigate normally, and humanitarian relief vessels are exempt from inspections.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard immediately released a stern retaliatory statement, rejecting the US unilateral blockade order and warning that it would deploy long-range missiles and maritime assault units to target US warships enforcing the blockade as well as relevant facilities of US allies in the Middle East. Iranian authorities also reported intercepting and sinking two foreign supertankers that ignored waterway warnings and entered controlled mine-laying zones on the same day. The statement added that all Middle Eastern countries cooperating with the US blockade will be regarded as hostile targets, leading to a sharp contraction in shipping volume through the strait.

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly one-third of global seaborne crude oil shipments, and most East Asian countries rely heavily on this waterway for crude imports. Markets have fully priced in long-term risks of tight crude supply, triggering a 9.1% single-day jump in WTI crude oil prices in the previous trading session, marking its steepest one-day gain in nearly a month. The sharp rally in oil completely reversed the previous broad market consensus that inflation would keep cooling. Investors have begun pricing a scenario of rebounding inflation and prolonged high interest rates from the Federal Reserve, which forms the fundamental driver behind today’s stronger US Dollar and weaker gold prices. More than 50,000 US military personnel are currently stationed across the Middle East, and military standoffs in the region will continue to intensify, leading to greater market volatility when the blockade officially takes effect in the early hours of tomorrow Beijing Time.

3. Spot Gold Trends, Bull-Bear Logic, Key Support and Resistance Breakdown

3.1 Real-Time Price and Intraday Trend (Asian Midday Session, July 14)

International spot gold is trading around $4,003 per troy ounce, edging down slightly by 0.07% intraday. The prior New York session witnessed a steep decline of nearly 3%. Prices briefly dipped below $3,992, breaking the short-term key support at $4,050 and hitting a two-week low. The mild technical recovery seen in today’s Asian session lacks strong bullish buying momentum, and the overall bearish trend remains unchanged. Domestic gold products declined in tandem: AU9999 on the Shanghai Gold Exchange stands at 875 RMB per gram, down 1.29% intraday; the main Shanghai gold futures contract trades at 873.26 RMB per gram with an intraday drop of 2.12%, showing synchronized bearish moves in domestic and overseas markets.

3.2 Four Core Short-Term Bearish Factors Weighing on Gold

First, rising real US Treasury yields. Driven by rebounding inflation expectations, the 10-year US real Treasury yield climbed to 2.34%, the highest level since April last year. Gold generates no interest income, so higher Treasury yields raise the opportunity cost of holding gold. Hedge funds have continuously cut long gold positions, with massive capital outflows from precious metal ETFs shifting toward US Treasury bonds.

Second, Federal Reserve officials collectively delivered strongly hawkish remarks. Fed Governor Waller publicly stated that if tonight’s core CPI data reveals sticky inflation higher than market forecasts, the Fed will need to resume rate hikes in the near term. He emphasized that a single mild monthly slowdown in inflation is insufficient to confirm inflation will return to the 2% target; consecutive cooling data is required to reverse tightening policies. Current interest rate futures price the probability of a rate hike at the July policy meeting at 50%, while the odds of a September rate hike approach 70%. Market pricing for two rate cuts within this year has almost vanished entirely.

Third, the strengthening US Dollar suppresses dollar-denominated gold. The US Dollar Index has stabilized above 101 to form a bullish trend, passively pressuring all global commodities and precious metals. Without a reversal in the Dollar’s bullish structure, gold’s upside rebound space will remain capped.

Fourth, diversion of traditional safe-haven capital. Amid this round of geopolitical crisis, global risk-averse funds prioritize US Dollar cash, Treasury bonds and crude oil assets. Gold’s function as a safe-haven hedge has failed completely, stripping it of independent upward momentum and leaving it to move passively alongside interest rates.

3.3 Long-Term Structural Bullish Fundamentals (Limiting Sharp Downside)

First, global central banks maintain consistent strategic gold purchases. Central banks worldwide recorded net gold purchases of 243.7 tonnes in Q1 2026. The People’s Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 19 consecutive months, and monthly net gold imports to China rose sharply month-on-month. Surveys by the World Gold Council show nearly 90% of central banks plan to raise their gold reserve ratios over the next 12 months. Central bank buying is a long-term allocation behavior that will not stop amid short-term price swings, forming a long-term floor for gold prices.

Second, the global de-dollarization trend continues, while the US Dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves keeps falling. Multiple nations have adjusted their reserve structures to reduce holdings of US Dollars and Treasury bonds and increase physical gold reserves, endowing gold with long-term allocation value at the global monetary system level.

Third, heavy physical bargain-hunting buying emerges near the $4,000 psychological threshold. The $4,000 level is widely recognized as a critical long-term support zone. Every time gold prices touch this level, Asian physical gold buyers and institutional investors building positions on dips enter the market. Therefore, gold prices can hardly sustain a break below $4,000 in the short run and will likely oscillate at lower levels pending data guidance.

3.4 Key Gold Price Zones

The primary short-term support range is $3,990 to $4,000, where short-term bargain-hunting capital and concentrated historical trading positions gather. If tonight’s CPI data meets market expectations, gold will likely oscillate within this range. Strong secondary support lies at $3,950; gold will only test this level if inflation data far exceeds forecasts and Fed rate hike expectations surge. Short-term resistance ranges from $4,040 to $4,070, a former support zone now turned strong resistance. Gold will only gain momentum to break this band and rebound if inflation data prints significantly below forecasts and the US Dollar slides rapidly. Major overhead resistance sits at $4,100; gold must hold above this level to return to its prior upward oscillation channel.

4. Complete Trend Analysis and Driving Factors of Major Forex Currencies

The US Dollar Index traded sideways with mild consolidation around 101.20 during the Asian session. After two consecutive days of sharp rallies, bulls took minor profit-taking, yet the overall uptrend remains intact. Supported by geopolitically driven inflation expectations, the Dollar maintains a clear bullish bias and pressures all G10 non-US currencies simultaneously. Currency divergence mainly stems from gaps in domestic economic fundamentals and monetary policy differentials versus the United States.

EUR/USD

Currently quoted at 1.1383, the pair edged lower intraday. Core bearish pressure comes from widening monetary policy divergence between the US and the Eurozone. Rebounding US inflation reinforces Fed tightening expectations, while Eurozone manufacturing and domestic demand data stay weak with feeble economic recovery momentum. Markets continuously price in early rate cuts by the European Central Bank, widening bilateral interest rate differentials and weighing on the Euro. No positive domestic economic data can offset US Dollar strength, leaving the Euro without conditions for a stabilizing rebound and sustaining a weak downtrend.

GBP/USD

Priced at 1.3360, the Pound continued its mild decline. UK inflation data has cooled consistently in recent months, easing domestic inflation pressures and leading markets to price in rate cuts by the Bank of England in the second half of the year. Compared with the Fed’s current hawkish stance, widening UK-US interest rate expectation gaps, paired with weak UK economic recovery and soft consumption data, push the Pound lower alongside other non-US currencies with minimal rebound momentum.

USD/JPY

Quoted at 162.36, the pair hit new stage highs once again. Divergent US-Japan monetary policies serve as the core driver: climbing US Treasury yields and rising rate hike expectations contrast with the Bank of Japan’s persistent ultra-loose policy with no tightening plans, expanding long-term interest rate gaps between the two countries. As a low-yield funding currency, the Yen keeps depreciating amid rising US yields, with no conditions for a full trend reversal in the short term, only minor technical pullbacks.

AUD/USD

Priced at 0.6912, the Australian Dollar recorded relatively larger intraday losses among major non-US currencies. As a commodity-linked currency, the AUD faces triple headwinds: broad bearish sentiment across global commodities, cautious market sentiment over domestic demand recovery, and sustained US Dollar strength, locking it into a weak trend with no near-term rebound catalysts.

USD/CHF

Trading at 0.8141, the pair maintained its upward track. The traditional safe-haven Swiss Franc failed to attract risk-averse capital amid Middle East tensions, as safe-haven funds fully flowed into the US Dollar. Coupled with rising US yields and a lack of positive fundamental catalysts for the Franc, it weakened alongside other non-US currencies, lifting USD/CHF higher.

CAD

The Canadian Dollar outperformed other non-US currencies with flat intraday performance, supported by surging crude oil prices as Canada is a major oil exporter. Even so, it cannot fully resist the US Dollar’s bullish momentum, only posting far milder losses than the Euro, Yen and Australian Dollar.

5. Federal Reserve Policy and Full Market Interest Rate Pricing

Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve persist, with the overall policy stance leaning hawkish. Senior official Waller issued clear rate hike signals, identifying tonight’s core CPI print as the critical benchmark for policy adjustments. Federal Reserve Chair Walsh will attend a congressional hearing at 22:00 Beijing Time. Markets will closely watch his full statements on inflation, interest rate paths and monetary policy adjustments for the second half of the year. Hawkish testimony will extend the current bullish US Dollar and bearish gold trends; remarks signaling caution and delayed rate hikes will ease market volatility and trigger short-term rebounds for precious metals and non-US currencies.

A clear reversal has occurred in market interest rate pricing, with prior forecasts of two rate cuts within the year nearly erased. Maintaining interest rates steady remains the baseline scenario for the July FOMC meeting, yet the probability of a rate hike climbed to 50%. The chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September stands at 51.3%, plus a 16.9% probability of a 50-basis-point hike, bringing total bets on a September rate hike close to 70%. The Fed’s core policy anchor remains inflation data; even mild softness in employment figures will not trigger rate cuts until inflation falls back to the 2% target, with "higher rates for longer" now the consensus market pricing theme.

6. Full Scenario Analysis for Tonight’s Two Critical Events (Weekly Market Turning Point)

Event 1: Release of US June CPI Inflation Data, 20:30 Beijing Time

Market consensus forecasts headline US June CPI at 3.8% year-on-year, down from the prior reading of 4.2%, with a month-on-month decline of 0.1%. Core CPI is projected to edge down to 2.8% year-on-year from the previous 2.9%, with a 0.2% month-on-month gain. Core CPI is the Fed’s primary monitoring indicator, which directly determines market interest rate expectations.

Scenario One: Both headline and core CPI print above forecasts. Sticky inflation is confirmed, markets sharply raise September rate hike odds, the US Dollar Index surges above 101.8, 10-year US Treasury yields climb further, gold tests support between $3,980 and $3,950, while the Euro, Yen, Australian Dollar and other non-US currencies accelerate depreciation.

Scenario Two: CPI data fully matches market forecasts. Current market logic holds steady, the US Dollar trades sideways, gold oscillates widely between $3,990 and $4,040, and non-US currencies consolidate with ongoing weakness pending further guidance from the congressional hearing testimony.

Scenario Three: Both headline and core CPI fall below forecasts. Fears of rebounding inflation ease sharply, markets scale back rate hike bets and revive rate cut expectations, the US Dollar slides rapidly, Treasury yields decline, gold rallies to test resistance at $4,070 to $4,100, and the Euro, Pound and Australian Dollar see staged corrective gains.

Event 2: Federal Reserve Chair Walsh Congressional Hearing Testimony, 22:00 Beijing Time

Markets will focus on three core segments of the testimony: assessments of current inflation rebound risks, conditions for interest rate adjustments in the second half of the year, and policy responses to oil price hikes transmitting into domestic inflation. Hawkish testimony will sustain the current bullish Dollar and bearish gold trend; remarks signaling a wait-and-see stance and delayed rate hikes will offset volatility sparked by CPI data and trigger short-term rebounds for precious metals and non-US currencies.

In addition, the full launch of the US maritime blockade against Iran takes effect at 04:00 tomorrow Beijing Time. Real-time tracking of Strait of Hormuz shipping conditions and Iranian retaliatory moves is required. News of large-scale tanker attacks or complete waterway closures will spark another crude oil rally, reigniting inflation expectations to indirectly boost the US Dollar and pressure gold.

7. Important Domestic Regulatory Notice

Eight Chinese government departments jointly launched a two-year special crackdown on illegal off-exchange financial transactions, explicitly banning overseas London gold, COMEX gold futures, foreign exchange margin trading and CFD contract transactions. All related activities within Chinese mainland including platform agency work, client lead generation, online and offline trading signal sharing, and fund transfer coordination count as illegal financial operations, with criminal liability applicable to cases involving large transaction volumes. Regulators only allow existing clients to close positions and withdraw funds, fully prohibiting new position openings and additional deposits. All overseas off-exchange trading platforms lack regulatory oversight in China, offer zero protection for capital security and carry extreme risks of principal losses and legal penalties.

8. Summary of Future Market Observation Rhythm

Before tonight’s CPI data and Fed congressional hearing release, market volatility will remain muted, with the US Dollar oscillating at highs, gold seeing mild corrective bounces at lower levels, and all non-US currencies stuck in weak consolidation. One-sided directional moves will emerge after data prints tonight. Gold’s intraday volatility will likely range from 30 to 80 US Dollars, and trading ranges for major forex pairs will expand sharply. Over the medium to long term, short-term interest rate pressure cannot override the underlying bullish support from sustained central bank gold purchases, creating allocation opportunities after sharp gold pullbacks. The US Dollar maintains a clear short-term bullish trend; only sustained, sharp cooling in US inflation data can fully reverse its current strength. Middle East geopolitical tensions will generate periodic market disruptions, with every escalation indirectly pressuring gold through the oil-inflation transmission channel and preventing independent safe-haven rallies in the short run.