Latest Core Forex News (April 27, 2026)

Masa penerbitan：2026-04-27 Penerbit：GINZO

I. Key Market Highlights (Asian Session, April 27)

US Dollar Index (DXY): 98.52 (+0.3%), continued to strengthen and neared the 99 level. Middle East safe-haven demand and rising U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 4.35%) underpinned the dollar.

Major Currency Pairs

EUR/USD: 1.0742 (-0.25%), under downward pressure amid weak European economic data and hawkish Federal Reserve stance.
USD/JPY: 159.85 (+0.4%), approaching 160 and hitting a multi-month high. Japanese authorities issued verbal intervention warnings over excessive exchange rate volatility.
GBP/USD: 1.2648 (-0.3%), fluctuated lower on soft UK inflation and growth figures.
USD/CNY (Onshore): 6.8920, traded in a narrow range; Offshore USD/CNY: 6.8950. The yuan stayed at a three-year high range.

II. Key News & Market Drivers

1. Fed Policy Expectations (Dollar Leading Factor)

The FOMC meeting (April 28–29) is fully priced to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25%–5.50%.

Per CME FedWatch: The probability of a June rate cut stands at 7.1%, with less than 30% odds for a cut before September. The chance of no rate cuts for the full year rose to 70%, while the probability of a rate hike reaches 15%.

Core logic: U.S. inflation remains stickier than expected. Middle East conflicts lifted crude oil prices (Brent at $101/barrel), reinforcing the higher rates for longer outlook.

2. USD/JPY Nears 160, Intervention Risks Escalate

USD/JPY broke 159.8, hitting the highest level since December 2025. Japan’s Ministry of Finance issued a verbal warning: “We will monitor excessive exchange rate swings and take decisive action when necessary.”

Japan’s key intervention zone: 160–162, with historical intervention records in this range.

3. CNY: Steady Appreciation with Two-way Fluctuations

The yuan has appreciated by over 6,000 basis points in one year, touching 6.82 at one point, a three-year high.

Central bank policy: Effective March 2, the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward sales was cut to 0 to ease appreciation pressure, guiding reasonable, balanced and two-way exchange rate movements.

Corporate moves: Enterprises have launched forex hedging programs to hedge against currency fluctuation risks.

4. Middle East Situation: Geopolitical Risk & Oil Surge

Shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz drove sharp oil gains (Brent +1.9%, WTI +1.72%), lifting inflation expectations, indirectly boosting the U.S. dollar and weighing on non-U.S. currencies.

Fluctuating U.S.-Iran negotiations caused shifting risk sentiment, amplifying short-term forex volatility.

III. Institutional Views

JPMorgan: The Dollar Index may test 100, with EUR/USD targeting 1.05.
UBS: Heavy Japanese intervention is expected near 160; short-term pullback risks remain.
Central Bank: CNY exchange rate stability is the core tone, with no one-sided appreciation or depreciation allowed.

IV. Upcoming Key Events (Beijing Time)

20:30: U.S. PCE Inflation Data (Core PCE expected at 2.8%, critical for Fed policy outlook)
22:00: U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
Early morning Apr 28: FOMC Policy Meeting kicks off