WTI crude oil futures settlement price soars 3.69%, up $3.56 to close at $99.93 per barrel
Masa penerbitan：2026-04-29
Penerbit：GINZO
Oil prices have surged again, approaching the psychological threshold of $100 per barrel directly. On April 29, 2026, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures stood at $99.93 per barrel, jumping 3.69% in a single day, just one step away from the $100 mark. Brent crude oil futures closed even higher at $111.26 per barrel, rising $3.03, or 2.80%.
Behind this round of price hikes lies the concentrated outbreak of multiple geopolitical risks: the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the UAE’s sudden withdrawal from OPEC+, and the deadlock in US-Iran negotiations. The global energy market is undergoing an unprecedented "stress test" — and who will ultimately bear the cost of this test?
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA)’s April report, Middle East conflicts are reshaping the outlook for the global oil market. Global oil demand fell by 800,000 barrels per day year-on-year in March, and is expected to drop by 2.3 million barrels per day in April. Global oil demand is projected to shrink by 80,000 barrels per day for the whole year of 2026.
More worryingly, global oil demand is forecast to decline by 1.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, marking the sharpest drop since the pandemic devastated oil consumption. Meanwhile, global oil supply fell to 97 million barrels per day in March, a sharp drop of 10.1 million barrels per day from the previous month.
Output of OPEC+ oil-producing countries decreased by 9.4 million barrels per day month-on-month to 42.4 million barrels per day. The overall supply from non-OPEC+ producers fell by 770,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 54.7 million barrels per day.
Among non-OPEC+ producers, while U.S. oil output increased, a sharp drop in Qatar’s oil production — which quit OPEC in 2019 — offset production growth from other non-OPEC+ nations. These figures clearly depict a pattern of weak supply and weak demand across the global oil market, with supply contracting far faster than demand.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has become the core variable driving this energy crisis. This waterway, only 33 kilometers at its narrowest point, carries nearly one-third of global seaborne oil trade and around one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas trade. Since the escalation of US-Israel-Iran tensions in late February, the Strait of Hormuz has remained blocked for nine weeks. Daily vessel throughput has plummeted from nearly 20 million barrels to less than 400,000 barrels, even hitting zero on some days.
IEA data shows oil tanker shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remained severely restricted in early April. Average daily loadings of crude oil, natural gas liquids and refined products stood at about 3.8 million barrels, compared with over 20 million barrels per day in February.
Giovanni Stanonovo, oil analyst at UBS, pointed out that shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have caused a global crude output loss of about 10 million barrels per day. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) assessed that conflicts have reduced global daily oil flows by about 13% and liquefied natural gas flows by 20%, with the energy supply gap continuing to widen.
The Financial Times of the UK analyzed that around 10% of global crude oil production has been forced offline during the strait’s closure, with a rapid recovery unlikely in the short term.
Chen Weidong, Chairman of Dongfanshi Energy Consulting, said: "We initially thought the turmoil would last no more than four to five weeks, but it has already dragged on for over 50 days."
The intensity of the conflict has far exceeded expectations. For ordinary people, the crisis is not first reflected in grand geopolitical narratives, but in dozens of extra yuan spent at gas stations, and gradually rising prices for eggs, bread and cooking oil in supermarkets. Countless unrelated details of daily life are linked by the same price chain — a cost transmission chain stretching from geopolitics to gas stations, and finally to the dining table.
While the market grapples with the Hormuz blockade, the UAE dropped a bombshell on April 28, announcing its withdrawal from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the OPEC+ mechanism effective May 1, 2026.
In an official statement, the UAE government said the decision followed a comprehensive review of the country’s oil production policies and current and future production capacity. It is based on national interests and aims to more effectively meet the urgent needs of international markets.
Bao Chengzhang, expert at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, analyzed that amid the traffic paralysis in the Strait of Hormuz, the UAE intends to break free from OPEC production quota constraints, release idle production capacity, and flexibly adjust output by leveraging Fujairah Port’s immunity to the strait’s congestion.
Bloomberg’s analysis also noted the UAE aims to bypass OPEC’s quota system and capitalize on its geographical advantage to capture a "war premium". As a key OPEC member, the UAE has long held divergent views with Saudi Arabia on OPEC and OPEC+ policies, arguing that the quota-based management model restricts its domestic infrastructure development and production expansion.
Sergey Vakulenko, former executive of Gazprom, analyzed that the UAE hopes to boost output by 30%, a goal impossible under OPEC+ quota limits. Ajay Parmar, analyst at an independent commodity information firm, said the UAE’s sudden OPEC withdrawal came as no surprise, as it has long disagreed with OPEC’s crude production policies.
Bao Chengzhang further stated that amid the global energy transition drive, the UAE is pushing for economic diversification, aiming to sell more oil for cash before global fossil fuel demand weakens.
News of the UAE’s OPEC withdrawal initially pulled international crude futures lower. As of 8:26 a.m. ET on April 28, June-delivery New York crude oil futures surged to a high of $101.85 per barrel, up $5.48 or 5.69%. June Brent crude futures peaked at $112.70 per barrel, rising $4.47 or 4.13%. However, prices dipped briefly after the UAE’s announcement before resuming their upward trend.
On April 28, peace talks between the US and Iran made no progress, keeping shipping in the Strait of Hormuz stagnant. International crude futures extended gains in early US trading hours, with New York crude breaking above $100 per barrel. Trump’s remarks on blocking the Strait of Hormuz became the main driver pushing oil prices higher during the session. The comments once again cut off shipping access to the strait, with vessel traffic falling back near zero. Market fears of crude supply disruptions flared up again, sending oil prices higher instantly.
Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA, warned that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed throughout April, shortages of crude and refined products will double from March levels, plunging the global energy market into severe challenges. Amid resource scarcity and persistently high prices, falling demand for oil products will spread from the Middle East and Asia-Pacific to the rest of the world.
Reports show continuous attacks on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure and prolonged shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz have triggered the largest supply disruption in history.
Liu Weiwei, a PhD student in Christchurch, New Zealand, said: "In the past, diesel prices were often less than half of gasoline prices, but now diesel has doubled and become more expensive than gasoline." She has given up driving to school, reflecting the direct impact of rising energy costs on ordinary people’s lives.
Numbers on fuel pumps climb faster than ever, making oil prices a rigid constraint on daily life. This cost transmission from geopolitics to gas stations and then to dining tables has turned ordinary people worldwide into direct bearers of geopolitical turmoil costs.
Analysts worry U.S. actions could escalate the Strait of Hormuz crisis, widen the oil supply gap and push international oil prices even higher. They warned that any renewed U.S. strikes on Iran would raise risks of attacks on regional energy infrastructure, with impacts lingering long after hostilities end.
After recouping last week’s losses, international oil prices rebounded rapidly. Overall, crude prices remain volatile, swinging back and forth on developments in US-Iran negotiations.
Fluctuations in negotiation momentum and repeated deadlocks, alongside frequent shifts in shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz, have kept oil price volatility elevated. Market sentiment remains highly sensitive, with sharp ups and downs alternating frequently.
Looking at weekend US-Iran talks, multiple reports show deep rifts and extremely low mutual trust between the two sides. No consensus was reached even on basic negotiation terms, with each side sticking to its own stance. The talks ended in deadlock with no substantial agreements reached.
Following the first round of negotiations, neither side announced plans for further talks. Fortunately, both have tacitly maintained the current ceasefire, with no large-scale military conflicts breaking out for the time being.
Industry insiders also fear the loss of OPEC’s role in coordinating global oil supply will trigger wilder swings in the international crude market. Many analysts said the UAE has both the willingness and capacity to ramp up output after quitting OPEC, which will greatly weaken OPEC’s influence in the global energy market.
April 29’s oil price data is just a microcosm of this complex landscape. WTI crude oil futures settled at $99.93 per barrel, up $3.56 or 3.69%. Brent crude closed at $111.26 per barrel, rising $3.03 or 2.80%. Both benchmark crude grades posted notable gains, driven by different underlying factors.
The Hormuz blockade has created an acute shortage of deliverable crude, leaving spot market prices far above futures levels. Crude spot prices in European and Atlantic markets stand at around $140 per barrel, with some North Sea spot prices nearing $150 per barrel — at least $30 higher than mainstream futures prices, reflecting extreme tightness in physical crude supply.
Supply disruptions stem not only from shipping bottlenecks in the strait, but also from skyrocketing tanker freight and insurance costs, which together have pushed up prices for deliverable crude. Refined fuel prices have also surged, with diesel and jet fuel approaching $200 per barrel.
Gold prices fell nearly 2% on April 28, hitting a four-week low of $4,554.91 per ounce. The Bank of Japan hinted at a possible rate hike in June and further policy tightening in the second half of the year, reflecting that rising energy prices have fueled global inflation concerns and become a key variable in central bank policy deliberations.
Major institutions including Citigroup and Morgan Stanley raised their oil price forecasts again this week. JPMorgan previously warned that if the Hormuz blockade lasts until mid-May, oil prices could surge above $150 in an extreme scenario. These revised forecasts reflect market concerns over sustained supply tightness.
Even if hostilities end, full production recovery could take three to four months. A return to normalcy in the energy market will require three phases: output recovery, shipping recovery and refining recovery.
The U.S. official response to Iran’s proposal is still pending. Pakistan, acting as mediator, is expected to receive Iran’s revised proposal in the coming days. The UAE’s production policy adjustments post-OPEC+ withdrawal are also a key market focus.
- Maklumat Hubungan
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